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Noam Ross

A new paper by @davidsimons: "Lassa fever cases suffer from severe underreporting based on reported fatalities."

Using current estimates of case fatality and severe outcome rates, he calculates the gap between expected and reported sever cases: "The expected number of severe cases between 2012 and 2022 is 8995, with current reported numbers 58% of what is expected."

academic.oup.com/inthealth/adv

@epiverse

Figure 1 from paper "Lassa fever cases suffer from severe underreporting based on reported fatalities". A graph showing distributions of case fatality rates using density (or raincloud) plots, as calculated by three methods, and bar plots showing the absolute value and ratio of reported and exected cases for seven countries, ranging from a ratio 17% (Ghana) to a ratio of 63% (Nigeria). Caption of of figure: "CFR of Lassa fever following development of symptomatic disease and presenting to healthcare using three data sources for estimation. Method 1 uses all reported cases and deaths where the CFR is not equal to 0% or 100%. Method 2 uses all reported cases and deaths provided by NCDC data prior to 2021 where the CFR is not equal to 0% or 100%. Method 3 uses all reported cases and deaths from Edo and Ondo states from 2017 to 2021. The black line represents the weighted mean CFR. (B) The difference between reported cases and expected cases derived from the number of reported deaths divided by the CFR (note that the y-axis scale varies by country)."
Nov 29, 2022, 03:50 PM·Public·Web
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